FORECASTING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON YAM YIELD IN RAINFOREST AND GUINEA SAVANNAH AGRO...

In the Guinea savannah and rainforest agro-ecological zones of Nigeria, the study experimentally established climatic variability and forecasted the effect of climate variability on yam productivity. For the research area, historic climatic datasets were collected and analysed for a period of 120 years (1901–2019). Climate variability was demonstrated using statistical approaches such as the Probability Density Function (PDF), trend analysis, and change points analysis. The study adopts two climate forecasting scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to determine the future effect of climate variability on yam yield in Nigeria's rainforest and guinea savannah. Annual mean rainfall decreased by 102.47mm/year (8.32 percent) from 1232.29 mm/year to 1129.82 mm/year over a thirty-year period (between 1931 and 1960 and 1961 and 1990). The model's simulation suggests that by 2050, the yam yield will be 0.34mmt/ha under the RCP 4.5 prediction scenario and 0.21mmt/ha under the RCP 8.5 forecast scenario. Using the two (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) projected forcing scenarios, yam yield will be negative in the rainforest agro-ecological zone over time (2030, 2040, and 2050). According to the findings, yam would perform better in the future in the Guinea savannah than in Nigeria's rainforest zone. In Nigeria, the results suggest that yam yield and rainfall have an inverse relationship, while yam yield and temperature have a positive relationship. As a result, the study proposed that all stakeholders assure the design of policies that will stimulate comparative advantage of food crop production based on climate variability in each agro-ecological zone of Nigeria today and in the future.

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